A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for parts of upstate New York Thursday afternoon as strong storms are predicted in the region through the evening, according to the National Weather Service in Buffalo.

The warning covers much of the Rochester region.

A severe thunderstorm watch is also in place throughout western and central New York through 10 p.m.

Hail and “damaging wind gusts” at 60 mph or more are the largest concern, said Weather Service Meteorologist Tony Ansuini. An isolated tornado is also possible as part of the storm, which is expected to hit western New York Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Areas that could be affected include: Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, Chemung, Cortland, Franklin, Hamilton, Herkimer, Madison, Onondaga, Oneida, Schuyler, Seneca, St. Lawrence, Steuben, Tioga, Tompkins and Yates counties, according to the Weather Service.

Timing for NY storms

Western New Yorkers should expect two rounds of storms to move through the region on Tuesday, which will begin breezy but warm – the high for the day is around 80 degrees.

Showers are expected to douse the region late Tuesday morning. However the real shift will occur as a strong cold front moves through the region Tuesday afternoon. Ansuini said the second round of storms would be the “main event” and is predicted to move through Rochester sometime between 4 and 10 p.m.

“The second round is the one to watch,” said Weather Service Meteorologist Tony Ansuini. “This is when we expect the most severe activity.”

The second round of storms will include gusts of 60 mph or more that could bring down some trees or power lines and cause outages.

Weather Service Meteorologist Liz Jurkowski said that the Genesee Valley region, which includes Rochester and its surrounding counties, is expected to see the “worst of the severe weather.”

Storm timing by region

• Lake Erie shoreline: Storms could begin as early as 3 to 4 p.m.
• Rochester area: The strongest storms are expected to move through between 4 and 10 p.m.
• Other parts of western and central NY: Timing will vary, but the afternoon through early evening is the most likely window for severe weather.